午评：震荡分化中，资金悄然调仓！这两大主线获重点布局

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak overall performance with structural differentiation, as major indices show mixed results and cautious market sentiment prevails [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to 3938.29 points, remaining below 4000 for two consecutive days, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.32%, and the ChiNext Index slightly rose by 0.12% [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.44 trillion yuan, maintaining high levels, but northbound capital experienced a net outflow, indicating a cautious market mood [1] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors are focused on "resource moats" and "defensive attributes," with the oil and petrochemical sector leading gains at 1.22%, followed by coal, banking, and non-bank financials, which rose by 0.16%, 0.82%, and 0.32% respectively [1] - The strength in these sectors is attributed to stabilizing macroeconomic expectations, fluctuating high oil prices, and long-term capital demand for high-dividend assets [1] - Funds are shifting from overvalued sectors such as pharmaceuticals, computers, media, and real estate to more certain cyclical and financial sectors, indicating a subtle market style transition [1] Driving Logic of Leading Sectors - The robust performance of the oil and petrochemical sector is driven by high oil price fluctuations and changes in the global energy supply-demand landscape, supported by domestic growth policies and industrial optimization [2] - The water product index surged by 3.89%, and the shipbuilding index rose by 3.1%, reflecting diverse market opportunities linked to seasonal factors and strong quarterly earnings [2] - The shipbuilding sector's rise is influenced by the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasis on high-end equipment manufacturing and rumors regarding naval equipment deployment, indicating a shift from policy expectations to actual order fulfillment [2] Market Outlook - In the short term, the market lacks a clear single main line, with funds rapidly rotating among high-dividend defensive, cyclical resources, and thematic growth sectors [2] - The index is expected to continue fluctuating, with investors advised to focus on sectors with performance support and reasonable valuations, avoiding speculative plays [2] - From a mid to long-term perspective, the recovery of the Chinese economy and trends in industrial upgrading remain core market drivers, with structural differentiation setting the stage for the next market cycle [3]