比特币崩跌破位：9万美元告急，下一站会是7万吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]