最新土地收入，揭开残酷现实

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant disparity in China's fiscal situation, with a notable decline in land sales revenue juxtaposed against a substantial increase in government budget expenditures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Land Sales and Revenue - From January to October, revenue from state-owned land use rights amounted to 24,982 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [2]. - The decline in land sales revenue is a trend rather than a one-off event, with projections indicating a 44% drop from the peak of 87,000 billion yuan in 2021 to 48,699 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Government Expenditures - National government budget expenditures reached 80,892 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 15.4% [3]. - The increase in expenditures is primarily attributed to the need for special funds to address issues arising from real estate company defaults and to repay local debts, which were previously managed through land sales [10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The current fiscal situation reflects a broken cycle where the traditional model of land finance (selling land to fund infrastructure and real estate) is no longer viable, leading to a structural imbalance in revenue and expenditure [9][10]. - The article suggests that the focus should shift from merely deflating the real estate bubble to preventing systemic risks and avoiding a hard landing for the economy [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to rely on short-term financial support, mid-term reforms, and long-term national strategies [13]. - Cities that successfully cultivate new economic engines will thrive, while those that fail to adapt may face fiscal challenges, indicating a deep connection between urban economic health and real estate prices [14].