华西证券：重视存储设备大级别行情 自主可控+景气周期共振

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is entering a "super cycle" driven by AI, with a significant increase in demand for high-end products like DDR5 and HBM, while supply is constrained by capacity construction cycles, leading to continuous price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen further, with the global storage market entering a super cycle driven by AI [1] - DRAM and NAND demand is projected to increase significantly, with an estimated additional demand of 9EB and 200EB by 2025, potentially doubling in 2026 [1] - The construction cycle for wafer fabs is approximately 2-3 years, and with limited new capacity expected, supply growth will lag behind demand growth [1] Group 2: Domestic Expansion in China - The core logic for the expansion of the storage industry in mainland China is self-sufficiency, with significant capital expenditure expected from companies like Changxin and Changchun [2] - By 2026, the combined expansion of these two companies is projected to reach 10-12 million wafers, with total capital expenditure exceeding $16 billion [2] - The domestic storage chip demand gap is expected to be more severe than overseas, indicating a pressing need for expansion in mainland China [2] Group 3: Valuation and Market Performance - A-share storage equipment is currently undervalued, with significant price increases observed in the storage equipment sector compared to wafer fabs and modules [3] - As of November 7, 2025, companies like Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company have year-to-date increases of 128% and 71%, respectively, which are significantly lower than module price increases [3] - The combined market capitalization of certain A-share storage equipment companies is 311 billion, which is lower than the module segment's market capitalization of 500 billion [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The global storage super cycle presents a bullish outlook for A-share semiconductor equipment, with specific recommendations for companies benefiting from high exposure to storage [4] - Key recommended stocks include Tuojing Technology, Jingyi Equipment, and Zhongwei Company, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the storage industry [4] - Additional recommendations include companies like Beifang Huachuang and Huahai Qingke, which are also positioned to benefit from the super cycle [4]