估值全球最低，中国消费要反转了？瑞银：Alpha藏在这些赛道里

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of China's consumer sector has reached a global low, presenting significant investment opportunities in specific segments and companies, as highlighted in UBS's latest report [1][2]. Valuation Insights - The consumer sector's valuation is low both historically and in global comparisons, with the 12-month forward P/E ratio for discretionary consumption approximately 40% lower than the global average, and the ratio for staples at a 10% discount [2]. Performance Metrics - The MSCI China discretionary consumption index has recorded a 35% year-to-date return, aligning closely with the 38% increase in the MSCI China index, indicating higher investor expectations in travel and entertainment sectors compared to the 10% rise in staples [3]. Business Model Innovations - UBS emphasizes the importance of business model innovation for identifying Alpha opportunities, particularly through the adoption of asset-light franchise models, which are helping some restaurant brands overcome traditional expansion barriers [3]. - Yum China is highlighted as a case study, with UBS predicting its store count could reach 30,000 by 2030, driven by lower-capital investment store formats that significantly reduce entry barriers for franchisees [3]. - UBS has also raised the long-term potential for Mixue Ice Cream to 80,000 stores, citing significant opportunities in lower-tier cities [3]. New Market Opportunities - UBS identifies structural growth potential in new markets, such as whiskey and trendy toys, as key themes for creating Alpha [4]. - The whiskey market in China is experiencing a shift in consumer preferences, particularly among women and young middle-class individuals in lower-tier cities, with UBS upgrading Baijiu Holdings to a "buy" rating due to its advantageous position in this growing segment [4]. - Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the U.S. [4]. Resilience in Pet Economy - The pet food market in China is projected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing the overall pet industry growth, with increasing consumer confidence in domestic brands providing a solid growth foundation for local leaders like Zhongchong Co., which UBS rates as a "buy" [5].