国信证券：个人教育服务需求持续演变 不同赛道消费驱动各异

Core Insights - The education industry is entering a structural transformation period driven by policy adjustments, strategic demands, and AI technology [1][2] - The reform of the high school entrance examination and the expansion of general high school enrollment are reshaping admission demands, while the civil service examination, vocational education, and degree enhancement sectors are experiencing strong demand due to employment pressures [1][3] Education Industry Overview - The education sector is closely linked to admission and employment, having birthed several companies with market values exceeding 100 billion [2] - The industry faces challenges due to the "impossible triangle" of large-scale, low-cost, and personalized education, leading to low concentration levels [2] - AI education offers a potential solution to the "impossible triangle" by providing low-cost and personalized features, which can help expand scale while maintaining product reputation [2] Policy Adjustments and Market Demand - The "five-five diversion" policy and the expansion of general high school enrollment are responses to national talent strategy needs, with the gross enrollment rate for general high schools projected to rise from approximately 48% in 2018 to 65% in 2024 [3] - The education services related to admission are expected to face continuous demand adjustments, with challenges for vocational schools and private high schools due to increased competition from public high schools [3] - Companies with strong adjustment capabilities may see market share opportunities as they focus on quality improvement and real empowerment [3] Sector-Specific Demand Drivers - Civil Service Examination: The number of applicants for the national civil service examination is expected to reach a record high of 3.718 million in 2026, reflecting strong demand for stable employment [4] - Vocational Education: There is a growing emphasis on skilled talent, with nearly half of university students supporting further skill training for better employment prospects [4] - Degree Demand: The enrollment rate for higher education is projected to rise from 48.1% in 2018 to 60.8% in 2024, indicating a strong desire for higher qualifications [4] - K12 Education: The participation rate in K12 subject training is expected to increase significantly, despite a current rate of 17.4% [4] Investment Logic by Segment - K12 education is seeing a slowdown in offline expansion, with leading companies focusing on quality improvement and shareholder returns [5] - Private high schools are facing enrollment growth challenges, while vocational education leaders like China Oriental Education are benefiting from increased student sources and rapid profit recovery [5] - The civil service examination sector remains robust, with companies like Huatu Education and Fenbi leveraging AI to enhance competitiveness [5] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends prioritizing sectors closely related to employment, such as civil service examination and vocational education, with a focus on companies like Huatu and China Oriental Education [7] - K12 education leaders that adapt to changes and improve educational quality, such as New Oriental and Daosheng Education, are also recommended [7] - The potential for valuation recovery in private higher education is noted, especially with recent positive signals from provinces like Guangdong and Hunan [7]