存储芯片价格疯涨50% 手机会继续涨价吗？

Core Viewpoint - The global consumer electronics market is facing challenges due to rising storage prices, leading to downward adjustments in production and shipment forecasts for smartphones and laptops in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - TrendForce has revised its 2026 global smartphone and laptop production forecasts from a growth of 0.1% and 1.7% to declines of 2% and 2.4% respectively [1]. - The ongoing inflation and strong upward cycle in memory prices are expected to increase overall production costs, which may lead to higher end-product prices and further impact consumer demand [1][2]. Group 2: Procurement Strategies of Manufacturers - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, have reportedly paused their storage chip purchases due to high price increases, with some DRAM inventories falling below three weeks [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that it is unlikely for manufacturers to halt procurement entirely, as doing so would risk losing market share; instead, they may opt to raise product prices to cover rising component costs [2][3]. Group 3: Cost Impact on Smartphone Pricing - The price increase of storage chips is expected to raise smartphone production costs by an additional 5% to 7% in the coming year, following an 8% to 10% increase in 2025 [5][6]. - Recent smartphone launches have seen price hikes across various brands, indicating that the cost pressures from rising storage prices are being passed on to consumers [4][5]. Group 4: Financial Performance of Companies - Transsion Holdings reported a revenue increase of 22.6% in Q3, but a net profit decline of 11.06%, attributing this to competitive pressures and rising supply chain costs [7]. - Xiaomi's Q3 financial report indicated a rise in sales costs due to increased prices of core components, reflecting the broader industry trend of rising costs impacting profitability [7][8]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trends - The high-end smartphone segment is better positioned to absorb cost increases due to higher profit margins, while mid-range and low-end models are more vulnerable to cost fluctuations [6][8]. - The ongoing supply constraints in the storage market may lead to a market reshuffle, favoring larger brands while smaller players struggle to secure resources [8].