2025美元流动性的三维度观测

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current state and future trends of US dollar liquidity through a three-dimensional observation matrix, focusing on the federal funds market, the repo market, and the offshore dollar market, indicating that while liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are building [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The core observation metric has shifted from "price" to "scale," with total reserves in the banking system reflecting the abundance of base dollars. As of September 2025, total reserves are maintained at $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a relatively ample liquidity condition [1][11]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022, the use of reverse repo tools has buffered the impact, preventing a significant withdrawal of reserves from the banking system [1][11]. - Continuous balance sheet reduction, rising Treasury General Account balances, and the nearing exhaustion of overnight reverse repo tools indicate that reserves are under pressure and may approach the liquidity warning line set by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for dollar liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the behavior of primary dealers being key observation points. Recently, the spread between SOFR and the overnight reverse repo rate has widened, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserve balances has been increasing, suggesting a tightening of funding supply, although it has not yet reached crisis levels seen in past financial stress periods [2][18]. - The Federal Reserve's standing repo facility has been heavily utilized at quarter-end, highlighting vulnerabilities in the repo market during structural gaps [2][21]. Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with traditional bank credit declining and bonds and foreign exchange derivatives becoming the main drivers of credit expansion [2][25]. - Monitoring offshore dollar liquidity is challenging through quantity indicators; thus, the currency swap basis has become an important observation metric. A widening basis indicates dollar scarcity, while a narrowing trend since 2025 suggests maintained liquidity even under external shocks [2][30]. - The transition from LIBOR to SOFR as the primary pricing benchmark reflects a shift in global dollar pricing power from offshore to onshore markets, diminishing the relevance of LIBOR-related indicators [2][29].