Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang·2025-11-19 07:34Core Insights - The lithium carbonate futures market in China has reached a significant turning point, with the main contract LC2604 breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, hitting a high of 100,800 yuan/ton, the highest since June 2024 [2] - This price breakthrough indicates a potential end to a nearly two-year period of market stagnation for lithium carbonate [2][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded from a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 to the 100,000 yuan mark, driven by a dramatic restructuring of supply and demand [5] - Strong demand is highlighted by data showing that from January to October 2025, the demand for battery materials in China reached 539,000 tons for ternary materials and 2.553 million tons for lithium iron phosphate materials [5] - Global demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 1.9 million tons in 2026, while supply is expected to increase by only 250,000 tons, leading to potential price surges if demand growth exceeds 30% [5] Policy Changes and Market Impact - Starting January 1, 2026, China's new tax policy for electric vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, impacting consumer purchasing decisions and potentially increasing costs for car manufacturers [7] - The new policy imposes stricter technical requirements for electric vehicles, which may eliminate lower-quality products from the market [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The combination of rising lithium carbonate prices and tax policy adjustments is reshaping the competitive landscape of the electric vehicle industry, increasing cost pressures and technical challenges for manufacturers [8] - Major companies like CATL and BYD are better positioned to withstand these pressures due to their upstream resource strategies, while smaller firms may face significant profit margin squeezes [8][9] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer purchasing behavior is shifting, with urgent buyers likely to purchase tax-exempt vehicles before the end of 2025, while others may wait for upgraded products in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the electric vehicle industry remains positive, driven by explosive growth in the global energy storage market and the acceleration of solid-state battery commercialization [9] Strategic Recommendations - Companies must build a competitive barrier that integrates resources, technology, and market strategies to navigate the evolving industry landscape [10] - The volatility in lithium carbonate prices necessitates risk management strategies, focusing on structural trends such as energy storage scaling, solid-state battery industrialization, and global market expansion [11]