EASTMONEY(SZ:300059) 智通财经网·2025-11-19 08:11Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Caifu Securities indicates that the supply-demand mismatch in 2024 will lead to deteriorating industry operations, but as companies gradually lower growth targets to adapt to demand in 2025, this will alleviate supply-demand conflicts and enhance investment value in the sector. The expectation is for positive growth in financial statements by the second or third quarter of next year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In Q1-Q3 2025, under weak demand, industry revenue showed slight growth while profits were under pressure, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a revenue decline of -4.9% and a net profit drop of -14.6% in Q3 2025 [1]. - Traditional consumption is hindered by slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with the liquor sector, particularly baijiu, facing accelerated clearance and weak performance in beer demand [1]. - Sectors like snacks and beverages that have opportunities for new product launches and channel expansion continue to show positive momentum, with products like konjac experiencing rapid growth since 2024 [1]. Group 2: Category Analysis and Outlook - Baijiu: The industry is accelerating clearance with clearer turning points. In Q3 2025, overall revenue and net profit declined by -18.4% and -22.2% respectively, but demand is expected to improve, stabilizing prices and leading to better financial performance by Q2 2026 [2]. - Low-Alcohol Beverages and Beer: Beer revenue and net profit grew by +2.0% and +11.8% respectively in Q3 2025, with cost advantages continuing. Demand recovery is anticipated in 2026, influenced by changes in retail channels [3]. - Dairy Products: The raw milk sector is gradually bottoming out, with demand expected to stabilize and prices recover. The low-temperature fresh milk segment is projected to grow, replacing some ambient milk [4]. - Snacks: Categories like konjac and oats are expected to maintain high growth, with a shift towards emerging channels and significant growth in instant retail [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Baijiu: Focus on companies that are clearing inventory early and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those with strong product matrices and channel capabilities like Moutai and Wuliangye [5]. - Low-Alcohol Beverages: Highlighting head companies like Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [5]. - Dairy and Snacks: Emphasizing the potential for recovery in the raw milk sector and recommending companies like Yili and Mengniu, as well as snack companies that can leverage product and channel adjustments [6].