周大生(002867)：金价上涨&收入结构变化驱动毛利率稳健向上 盈利能力改善

Group 1 - The gold price has been rising, leading to a transformation in the gold jewelry industry, shifting from channel-driven growth to brand and product-driven growth, with a clear trend towards differentiation, lightweight, and high-end products [1] - In Q3 2025, China's gold jewelry demand was 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year and up 21% quarter-on-quarter, marking the weakest performance for the third quarter since 2007, indicating a shift from pure volume growth to brand and craftsmanship focus [1] - The company's revenue in Q3 2025 was 2.18 billion, down 16.7%, with self-operated offline revenue at 450 million, up 15.5%, and online revenue at 780 million, up 68.2%, while franchise revenue was 920 million, down 46.8% [1] Group 2 - The recent adjustment in the value-added tax policy for gold in China may create short-term demand resistance but is expected to accelerate the industry's transformation towards innovation in craftsmanship and design [2] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.08 billion and 1.22 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13x and 12x for those years, indicating a low valuation with safety margins [2] - The company has effectively managed costs and maintained stable gross margins, achieving steady profit growth despite fluctuations in gold prices [2]