黄金迎来新一轮考验

Core Viewpoint - The recent end of the longest government shutdown in the U.S. has shifted market focus back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the impact of tariffs on inflation, with gold prices experiencing volatility in response to changing interest rate expectations [1][2]. Economic Data and Trends - The resumption of the U.S. government has led to the scheduled release of key economic data, including September non-farm payrolls and the PCE price index, which are expected in mid-November [2]. - The October ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.7, indicating widespread weakness in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI rose to 52.4, suggesting resilient demand despite increasing inflationary pressures [2]. - The October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, the highest since July, but another high-frequency employment indicator revealed a loss of 45,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [6]. Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The preliminary consumer confidence index for November fell to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, with inflation expectations slightly rising to 4.7% [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has further deteriorated consumer confidence, while inflation expectations remain elevated due to tariffs and other economic pressures [6]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - There is significant division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision for a potential rate cut in December, with some citing increased risks in the labor market and others emphasizing the need for more economic data [7]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased from 90% to around 45% recently, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [7]. Gold Market Dynamics - Global geopolitical tensions and economic downturn risks have led to increased demand for gold, with total global gold demand rising to 1,258 tons in Q3 2025, a 16% increase from Q2 [9]. - Central banks, particularly in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, have continued to increase their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 2,304.5 tons by the end of October [9]. - The investment landscape for gold is expected to shift as more central banks increase their holdings, potentially driving precious metals back into a bull market in the medium to long term [10].