EASTMONEY(SZ:300059) 智通财经网·2025-11-19 08:38Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to enter a long-term upward cycle due to a solidified price floor and limited growth in new coal production capacity, despite a decrease in coal production and imports in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coal Supply - In the first nine months of 2025, domestic coal production increased by 2% year-on-year, but there was a significant decline in production following the release of the National Energy Administration's document No. 108 in July, with production in July, August, and September showing year-on-year decreases of -3.8%, -3.2%, and -1.8% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang was 32.9 million tons, 30.9 million tons, 20.3 million tons, and 12.3 million tons respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.6%, -0.3%, +0.1%, and -12.3% [1]. Group 2: Coal Imports - In the first nine months of 2025, coal imports totaled 34.6 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year. Specifically, imports of Indonesian coal were 14.3 million tons, down by 2.525 million tons or 15% year-on-year [2]. - Imports of Mongolian coal reached 6.192 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons or 2.1% year-on-year, but the proportion of imported coking coal decreased from 71.6% to 67.4% [2]. Group 3: Coal Demand - Short-term demand for coal is structurally weak due to a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and competition from renewable energy sources, with total thermal power generation in the first nine months of 2025 at 4,696.9 billion kWh, down 1.2% year-on-year [3]. - The steel sector shows resilience, with cumulative profits of key steel enterprises reaching 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [3]. - Chemical coal demand remains high but is slowing, with an average weekly coal consumption of 6.9 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, up 12.7% year-on-year [3]. - The building materials sector continues to be affected by real estate, with coal consumption of 18.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than the 9.1% drop in the same period of 2024 [3]. Group 4: Industry Policy and Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy in the coal industry aims to control production release through capacity utilization rates, balancing supply and demand to support coal prices, with ongoing supply constraints expected [4]. - The central government's focus on regulating disorderly competition and promoting capacity governance is seen as crucial for the industry's recovery [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) for their long-term benefits from a solidified coal price floor [5]. - In the context of rising coal prices, companies like Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), and Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) are recommended for their valuation recovery potential [5]. - Coking coal companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) and Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH) are expected to benefit from the steel industry's "anti-involution" [6].