智昇：降息or不降？美联储内部吵翻了！分歧程度为32年之最

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut is now uncertain due to diverging views among officials regarding the health of the economy, persistent inflation, and weak job markets [1][3] Group 1: Diverging Opinions Among Federal Reserve Officials - Some policymakers have heightened concerns about persistent inflation, linking it to the recent focus on "affordability" during the elections [3] - Another faction emphasizes the risks of a weak job market, suggesting that low hiring and layoffs could worsen the current employment situation [3] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve reflects a complex economic outlook influenced by tariffs, AI advancements, immigration policy changes, and tax reforms [3] Group 2: Risks of Delayed Rate Cuts - If the Federal Reserve reduces the scale of interest rate cuts, high costs for housing and auto loans will persist, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with living costs [3][4] - Polls indicate that high mortgage and auto loan rates are contributing to widespread discontent among the populace [3] Group 3: Anticipated Opposition Votes in Upcoming Meetings - Analysts predict a significant number of dissenting votes in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, regardless of whether a rate cut is decided [4] - If a rate cut occurs, dissenting votes could reach four to five, while maintaining rates could see three dissenting votes, marking a rare occurrence in the Fed's history [4] Group 4: Impact of Government Shutdown on Economic Data - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent decision-making approach [6] - The latest employment data is stuck at August levels, and inflation data is only updated to September, creating challenges for the Fed [6] Group 5: Market Expectations and Stock Market Reactions - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to around 50%, down from nearly 94% a month ago, contributing to recent stock market corrections [7] - The current rate cut probability has slightly rebounded to 48.9% [7] Group 6: Diverging Views on Future Rate Cuts - After the Fed's second rate cut in October, Chairman Powell dampened expectations for further cuts, stating that December's cut is "not a foregone conclusion" [8] - Various regional Fed officials have expressed concerns about inflation, emphasizing the need to maintain rates around 3.9% to help bring inflation back to target [8] - Conversely, some officials argue that the weak job market poses a more significant risk and advocate for a December rate cut [8] Group 7: Key Economic Indicators and Political Pressures - The upcoming labor market data will be crucial in shaping the Fed's consensus on rate cuts [9] - Political pressures, including discussions about potential replacements for Chairman Powell, may influence the Fed's policy direction [9] Group 8: Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup predicts that weak labor market data will lead the Fed to initiate a rate cut in December, which is a key variable affecting the current stock market [10] - The end of the government shutdown is expected to improve market liquidity, creating a favorable environment for U.S. equities [10]