英国通胀七个月来首降！央行降息预期重燃，财政预算成新变数

Core Viewpoint - UK inflation has shown its first decline in seven months, indicating that price pressures may have peaked ahead of critical decisions by the Bank of England and Chancellor Rachel Reeves [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October rose by 3.6% year-on-year, down from 3.8% in September, slightly above the expected 3.5% but in line with the Bank of England's forecast [1] - The inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level since June, primarily driven by lower energy price increases compared to the previous year [1] - Service inflation has slightly decreased to 4.5%, which is below the Bank of England's expectations [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The data has reignited market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England before Christmas, with traders focusing more on service inflation data [1] - The British pound has fallen by 0.1% against the US dollar, trading at 1.313 USD [1] Group 3: Government Response - Chancellor Reeves has committed to measures to curb high inflation, with a focus on the upcoming autumn budget [3] - The Chancellor stated that the decline in inflation is positive for households and businesses, but emphasized the need for further actions to reduce prices [3] - If VAT and environmental taxes on household energy bills are removed, inflation could potentially decrease by 0.5 percentage points [3] Group 4: Economic Context - Earlier this summer, UK inflation approached twice the Bank of England's 2% target due to regulatory prices, tax increases, and rising energy and food bills, raising concerns among policymakers [7] - The weak job market and sluggish growth have heightened market expectations for another interest rate cut [7] - The October inflation slowdown was mainly driven by natural gas and electricity prices, while grocery bills have become a counteracting factor, with food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation accelerating to 4.9% [7] Group 5: Data Accuracy - Official data indicates a continued downward trend in annual inflation rates from April to May, although earlier estimates were slightly overstated due to data errors [10] - The October data marks the first CPI decline since March, following a seven-month period of rising inflation [10]