百利好晚盘分析：央行购金不断 买盘持续发力

Gold Market - Gold prices have rebounded strongly after a period of decline, with short-term technical indicators showing improvement. Central banks remain the primary buyers of gold, continuing to increase their purchases [1] - In September, global central banks bought 64 tons of gold, and purchases are expected to continue into November. From Q4 2025 to 2026, central banks are projected to buy an average of 80 tons of gold per month [1] - The tightening of market liquidity due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a positive factor for gold prices, potentially driving them higher [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong position, with support around $4055 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices show signs of strength, but market sentiment remains cautious, with overall trends still within a long-term downtrend [2] - The latest data indicates a rise in U.S. API crude oil inventories by 4.448 million barrels, marking the largest increase in five months. Gasoline and distillate inventories also rose [2] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a potential record surplus in crude oil by 2026, primarily due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-member countries [2] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are currently rebounding but remain below moving averages, with support around $59.40 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index has been primarily fluctuating, gaining support as expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50%, with current estimates at approximately 48.9%, down from around 70% two weeks ago [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts create uncertainty, but ongoing liquidity risks may prompt a quicker decision on rate cuts [4] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes is anticipated to provide further market guidance [4] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a significant bearish pattern, indicating potential for further declines, with resistance noted around 49110 [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a high probability of reaching a peak, although an upward continuation pattern may still form [6] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may experience one final decline, with support around $4.90 [6]