HashKey研究院：比特币未有企稳趋势 美元流动性危机隐现

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has not shown signs of stabilization after dropping below $90,000, with a continuous decline from $120,000 attributed to an emerging dollar liquidity crisis [1][2] Group 1: Bitcoin Price and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price is viewed as a leading indicator of global dollar liquidity, with the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury being central to this monetary circulation [1] - The primary reason for the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is expected to extend until early December [1] - The U.S. government's shutdown has led to a significant increase in the TGA Cash account, further draining market liquidity [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and External Factors - Secondary factors contributing to market confidence issues include the East Asian situation, high leverage in the crypto market, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [2] - The East Asian situation, particularly Japan's new prime minister's strong rhetoric, has introduced some instability in the financial market, but its impact on the digital currency market is limited [2] - The crypto market's leverage has decreased by nearly 45% in recent weeks, from $230 billion to $130 billion, indicating a clearing of excess leverage [2] Group 3: Future Outlook on Liquidity Crisis - Although a liquidity crisis has not fully materialized, the actions of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury will be crucial moving forward [2] - Key considerations include whether the Federal Reserve will continue to expand its asset reserves and if the Treasury's TGA account will maintain a stable decline [2] - Any stagnation in these "supply" mechanisms could potentially lead to a new round of liquidity crisis [2]