停摆 43 天终落幕！金涨油跌股分化，你的资产怎么守？

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 43 days and ended on November 12, causing significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 326.86 points to a record high, while the Nasdaq fell by 61.84 points [3][9] - The U.S. government will issue $2,000 cash subsidies to millions of families, and tariffs on essential goods like coffee and bananas will be eliminated, directly impacting investment decisions and living costs [5][15] Economic Impact - The shutdown resulted in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, equivalent to three times Luxembourg's annual GDP, with hidden losses expected to take months to fully materialize [9] - Following the end of the shutdown, the Dow closed at 48,254.82 points, up 0.68%, driven by financial and consumer stocks, while the Nasdaq closed at 23,406.46 points, down 0.26% due to high valuations in tech stocks [9][11] Market Reactions - Historical data shows that after 20 government shutdowns since 1976, the S&P 500 index typically rises by an average of 1.2% within a month and 2.9% within three months, indicating a potential recovery in the market [11] - Gold prices surged to $4,201.4 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while oil prices fell by 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel due to economic concerns and revised supply forecasts from OPEC [13][15] Consumer and Investment Strategies - The new policy includes a $2,000 tax rebate for families earning less than $100,000, which is expected to benefit middle-class and working families, while also reducing costs for consumers on essential goods [15][17] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with stable growth, such as financials and consumer goods, while being cautious of high-valuation sectors like technology [19] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision in December will be crucial for gold prices, while oil market trends will depend on global demand recovery and OPEC's production policies [20] - The resolution of the government shutdown highlights the interconnectedness of U.S. policy changes and global economic uncertainty, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant [23]