布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储理事称企业开始筹划裁员方案

Core Viewpoint - The discussion of layoffs among U.S. businesses is increasing, driven by expectations of weak demand and productivity gains from artificial intelligence technology [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Companies are shifting from a "no hiring, no layoffs" approach to planning for layoffs within the last four to six weeks [1]. - The change in corporate behavior reflects a fundamental shift in employment strategies, moving away from static hiring practices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Waller urges the Federal Reserve to consider a 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting, citing risks in the job market [3]. - Current inflation levels are only slightly above the Fed's 2% target, and Waller expects inflation to decline further due to economic slowdown pressures [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - There is significant disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a pause due to inflation still being nearly 1% above target [5]. - Waller acknowledges the serious divisions among policymakers but views this as a positive aspect of internal discussions [5]. Group 4: Data and Economic Assessment - Despite challenges from government shutdowns delaying economic data releases, Waller believes the Fed can still effectively assess the economy using private sector data and state unemployment claims [7]. - The upcoming December policy meeting will be closely watched as differing viewpoints will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [7].