比特币近七个月来首度失守9万美元

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has fallen below the critical psychological level of $90,000 for the first time in seven months, driven by a sharp shift in macro liquidity expectations and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [2][3] Market Dynamics - As of the latest report, Bitcoin is trading at $89,777.1, down 5.45% [3] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading investors to systematically withdraw from high-risk assets [3] - Morgan Stanley's recent research indicates that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not change its stance in December, the tightening of dollar liquidity will directly suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Shiliang Tang from Monarq Asset Management notes that the weakening of rate cut expectations has altered funding cost expectations, resulting in a decline in the crypto market after losing the $100,000 threshold, which is seen as a natural outcome of the liquidity premium dissipating [3] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that the drop in Bitcoin from $125,000 to the $90,000 range, while the stock market remains at historical highs, suggests that a "credit event is brewing" [3][4] Potential Price Movements - Hayes further indicates that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if market conditions worsen, the Federal Reserve or other institutions may be forced to accelerate "money printing" to stabilize the situation, potentially leading Bitcoin to fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range [4] - Market analyst Damian Chmiel suggests that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with the next target being the April low of approximately $74,000, indicating about a 30% potential downside from current levels [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent market turmoil, Tom Lee from Fundstrat maintains a bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that the market has recently experienced a historic liquidation event larger than the FTX collapse, which has not shaken his long-term confidence [4]