11月全球市场暴跌，资产抛售潮的底层逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility in mid-November 2025, characterized by a synchronized sell-off across various asset classes, driven by three main factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy, valuation concerns in the AI sector, and geopolitical debt issues in Japan [1][9][13]. Market Performance - The stock market was heavily impacted, with developed markets suffering greater declines than emerging markets. The U.S. stock market saw a four-day decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 498.5 points to 46091.74, a decrease of 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite falling 275.22 points to 22432.85, a drop of 1.21% [2][3]. - European markets also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 1.85% and the UK FTSE 100 down 1.27% on November 18 [3]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.22%, marking its largest single-day decline since April, while the A-share market showed relative resilience with smaller declines [3]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, experienced a dramatic decline, falling below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains for the year. This decline was attributed to tightening macro liquidity and changing regulatory expectations [4]. Commodity Market - The commodity market saw a broad decline, with both risk and safe-haven assets under pressure. Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce, driven by reduced expectations for interest rate cuts and a stronger dollar [5][6]. - Industrial metals also faced declines, reflecting concerns over global economic slowdown, while energy markets were an exception, with oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions [7]. Bond Market - The bond market experienced significant volatility, particularly in Japan, where the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.751%, the highest since 2008. This was driven by concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability amid a proposed large-scale economic stimulus plan [8]. Core Drivers of the Sell-off - The shift in Federal Reserve policy was a primary driver, with expectations for rate cuts diminishing sharply from 90% to 44% for December, leading to increased market volatility [9][10]. - Valuation concerns in the AI sector, particularly surrounding Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, prompted institutional investors to reduce their positions, reflecting fears of overvaluation [11][12]. - Japan's geopolitical tensions and debt concerns acted as a "black swan" event, exacerbating global market volatility and impacting capital flows [13][14]. Industry Performance - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities showed relative resilience, while technology and growth sectors, particularly those related to AI, faced significant declines [15][16]. - Some segments within the semiconductor and AI application sectors experienced gains, indicating structural opportunities despite broader market declines [16]. Fund Flows - There was a notable shift in fund flows, with significant outflows from high-valuation tech stocks and inflows into defensive sectors. The S&P 500 saw $40.5 billion in outflows, while energy and healthcare sectors attracted investments [17]. Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment turned increasingly fearful, with the VIX index rising to around 20, indicating heightened concerns over market volatility [18]. Historical Comparison - The current market conditions share similarities with past crises, particularly in terms of the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, but differ in the underlying causes and market dynamics [19][20]. Unique Aspects of the Current Sell-off - The current market downturn is marked by the unique factors of AI valuation bubbles and the potential unraveling of yen carry trades, which have not been prominent in previous crises [21]. Outlook - Key upcoming events, including Nvidia's earnings report and U.S. non-farm payroll data, will be critical in determining whether the current market volatility represents a short-term correction or a more significant trend reversal [22]. - Mid-term risks include Japan's debt situation and the potential for global economic slowdown, which could further impact market dynamics [23]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive approach, reducing exposure to high-valuation tech stocks while seeking opportunities in defensive sectors and structural growth areas [24][25].