GANFENG LITHIUM(SZ:002460) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-19 12:40Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, prompting warnings from exchanges and institutions about short-term risks in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent increase of 65.63% since hitting a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 this year [1]. - As of November 19, the mainstream price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 97,550 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Year-to-date, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded by 56% from a low of 59,900 yuan/ton in June [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong demand for lithium carbonate is driven by the robust performance of the electric vehicle battery sector, with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in domestic battery installations in October [3]. - The supply side has not kept pace with demand, leading to a depletion of lithium carbonate inventories, which decreased by 3,481 tons week-on-week [2][3]. - Forecasts suggest that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by about 250,000 tons [4]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The surge in lithium carbonate futures has positively impacted lithium mining stocks, with companies like Jinyuan Co., Daway Co., and Rongjie Co. hitting their daily price limits [4]. - The overall sentiment in the lithium industry remains optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases if demand growth exceeds 30% in the coming year [4].