碳酸锂这波涨得太猛了！ 11月17日单日飙9%封涨停，还带飞一堆锂矿股，天华新能直接涨超15%。 | | | | 能源金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 31700.56 5.26% | | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 分析 新闻 | | 铝 多股同列 | | | | 乙批量加自选 | | 全部 | 龙头股 3日内有涨停 | | 连板 | 连续3日主力净流. | | 名称/代码 | | 最新 = | | 涨幅 ¥ 5日涨幅 = | | 盛新锂能 | | 35.93 +10.01% +26.38% | | | | 002240 融 | | | | | | 领涨龙头1 | 3 天 2 板 最终涨停 10:51 | | | | | 融捷股份 | | 59.35 +10.01% +21.00% | | | | 002192 融 | | | | | | 领涨龙头2 3天2板 | 最终涨停 11:17 | | | | | 天齐锂业 | | 62.20 | | +9.87% +8.16% | | 002466 融 | | | | | | ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,835.57 points, up 0.02% or 4.92 points, and a total turnover of HKD 245.136 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.08% to 9,143.34 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.58% to 5,574.59 points [1] Sector Performance - Citic Securities predicts a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by a recovery in fundamentals and significant valuation discounts. They recommend focusing on five long-term sectors: technology, healthcare, resource products benefiting from inflation and de-dollarization, essential consumer goods, and sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [1] - Blue-chip stocks showed mixed results, with Link REIT leading the decline, down 6.42% to HKD 38.8, while Techtronic Industries rose 5.36% to HKD 88.5 [2] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is highlighted as crucial for household asset allocation in China, with policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices to support economic circulation. High-quality residential properties are expected to see growth due to favorable policy changes [4] - Major real estate stocks like Sunac China and Vanke saw significant gains, with Sunac up 6.02% to HKD 1.41 [3] Technology Sector - Nvidia reported strong Q3 earnings, with revenue of USD 57 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of USD 31.9 billion, up 65%. The data center business reached a record revenue of USD 51.2 billion, reflecting the ongoing AI trend [5] - Nvidia-related stocks were active, with companies like GigaDevice and Hongteng Precision seeing gains [4] Lithium Sector - Lithium stocks experienced volatility, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both closing down nearly 2%. Despite a strong demand outlook, market sentiment remains cautious due to high prices and supply concerns [6] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced declines, with companies like Jinhai Resources and Lingbao Gold dropping over 2% [6] Notable Company Performances - Kingsoft saw a significant drop of 7.03% after reporting a 17% decline in revenue for Q3 [8] - CATL faced pressure, down 5.66%, as a large portion of its H-share IPO lock-up period ended [9] - WanGuo Data reported a 10.2% increase in net revenue for Q3, leading to a rise of 6.21% in its stock price [10] - Kingsoft Cloud's stock rose by 4.87% after reporting a 31.4% increase in total revenue for Q3 [11]

Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 364% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 417% [1] - The recovery in lithium prices has led to improved profitability for the company [1] - The company is entering a phase of accelerated resource self-supply, which is expected to enhance self-supply rates and improve production costs [1] Industry and Company Developments - Since Q3, lithium prices have stabilized and rebounded, benefiting Ganfeng Lithium as a leading resource company with faster self-supply rate improvements and ongoing cost optimization [1] - Ganfeng Lithium continues to invest in its battery business, holding the largest global capacity for lithium metal, positioning itself to benefit from the future demand for solid-state batteries in lithium-ion technology [1] - The long-term growth potential of the company is significant, making its investment value worthy of attention [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals industry, with the index rising by 1.51% and key stocks like Guocheng Mining and Yahua Group showing significant gains [1] - In October, the actual growth of the industrial added value of non-ferrous metals above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while the growth from January to October was 7.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous three quarters [1] - The demand in the energy storage market is robust, with leading domestic lithium battery companies placing large orders with upstream material suppliers, indicating a high growth trend in production for November [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which selects 50 securities with significant size and liquidity in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index accounted for 52.91% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium [2]

智通财经APP获悉，锂矿股早盘走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨5.5%，报57.45港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨4.3%，报61.85港元。 中信建投证券表示，据Mysteel数据，11月碳酸锂月度供给约11.5万吨，需求12.8万吨，短缺约1.3万吨， 市场持续去库。同时淡季消费不淡，订单支撑可延续至明年，当前碳酸锂供需矛盾已经从供给施压转向 为消费驱动。中长期看，储能需求的持续走强，锂电全产业链迎来一轮涨价，碳酸锂供需基本面也得以 大幅改善。静态预测，2026年全球锂资源供给208.9万吨，消费 200.4万吨，在不考虑正极环节及贸易商 补库情形下，过剩仅8.5万吨，较2025年收窄，考虑产业链备库2026年将出现结构性短缺，锂价驱动由 供给施压转向需求驱动向上。 消息面上，11月20日，碳酸锂期货主力合约继续走强，涨幅一度达4%，再度站上10万元大关。从年内 低点58400元/吨计算，反弹已超70%。赣锋锂业董事长于上周末"第十届动力电池应用国际峰会 (CBIS2025)"上预判，2026年碳酸锂供需趋于平衡，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，达到190万吨。若需 求增速超过30%乃至达到4 ...

17日（周一），碳酸锂期货高开高走，至下午主力合约涨停，涨幅9%。A股市场锂电池概念股同步上 涨，孚日股份、盛新锂能等多股涨停。由于当日碳酸锂行业没有重大利好消息，市场大涨被外界解读为 是受李良彬上述乐观预测的影响。 （原标题：每经热评｜从光伏到锂电 一句话为何导致市场大涨大跌？） 同样是一句话，也可能导致市场大跌。 从期货市场到股票市场，"一句话"的影响力可能"价值"数百亿元。 就在上周三（11月12日），市场有消息称，晶澳科技董秘在光伏月度例会中表示"收储"平台黄了，这话 却被市场曲解为反内卷失败。在该消息广泛传播后，当日A股光伏板块应声下跌，通威股份、隆基绿能 一度接近跌停，晶澳科技收盘时也下跌6.84%。 11月16日，在一次行业会议上，赣锋锂业董事长李良彬预测，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，达到190 万吨，如果增速超过30%，甚至达到40%，则短期内供需无法平衡，价格可能随之突破15万元/吨，甚至 达到20万元/吨。 但一句话引发的涨跌，很快就会回归常态。 11月12日盘中，光伏行业协会紧急辟谣，市场止跌回弹，当日晚间晶澳科技也以公告形式对上述传闻予 以否认。Wind数据显示，13日，光伏指数 ...

回溯过往，碳酸锂期货主力合约上一次站在10万元/吨上方，是去年的6月11日。今年6月23日，该合约触及5.84万元/吨的阶段低点，此后 开始反弹，至今日早盘结束，碳酸锂主连已累计大涨65.63%。 期货市场强势的同时，碳酸锂现货市场亦是"一天一个价"。 上海钢联数据显示，11月19日，MMLC电池级碳酸锂主流价97550元/吨，较 11月18日的94050元/吨上涨3500元/吨，11月18日较17日上涨3700元/吨。若将时间线拉长至全年，碳酸锂价格的反弹力度更为明显，6 月时电池级碳酸锂价格曾触及5.99万元/吨的年内低点，至11月中旬，这一价格已累计上涨56%。 对于此轮碳酸锂价格的上涨逻辑，李嘉宁对财联社记者表示，碳酸锂期货的上涨驱动因素主要是基本面偏强， "年底需求端维持旺季态势， 储能需求保持坚挺，碳酸锂耗用量逐月环增。供给端虽每个月都有小幅增量，但因枧下窝迟迟未实现复产，供给端增速没有跟上需求增速， 预计国内碳酸锂每个月去库一万多吨。" 数据显示，10月碳酸锂月度库存84234吨，本周SMM周度库存120472吨，其中冶炼厂库存28270吨，正极厂48772吨，电池及贸易商 43430吨，全产业 ...

智通财经11月19日讯（记者 刘梦然 刘建）本月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约持续发力，今日盘中突破10 万元/吨大关。智通财经记者注意到，碳酸锂价格持续大涨后，期货交易所与部分机构向投资者提示了 碳酸锂期货短期风险。 上海钢联新能源事业部李嘉宁在接受智通财经记者采访时表示，碳酸锂价格短期波动巨大，涨幅已经超 出了产业端大多数人的预期，且下游采购方对于价格的接受程度有限，散单采购不积极。 "当下，价格拐点或将取决于下游何时能够开始大规模补库采买。"李嘉宁预测，2026年，碳酸锂价格区 间预计在8万-12万元/吨。 数据显示，10月碳酸锂月度库存84234吨，本周SMM周度库存120472吨，其中冶炼厂库存28270吨，正 极厂48772吨，电池及贸易商43430吨，全产业链库存呈下降趋势。本周碳酸锂周度库存环比减少3481 吨。 需求层面，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，10月国内动力电池装车量84.1GWh，环比增长 10.7%、同比增长42.1%，其中磷酸铁锂电池装车67.5GWh，占比80.3%。中游电解液、磷酸铁锂正极产 量也环比提升，对碳酸锂需求形成有效拉动。 有机构分析指出，储能市场需求旺盛，国内 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 364% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 417% [4][6]. - The non-recurring net profit was -29 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96% [4][6]. - The recovery in lithium prices has led to improved profitability for the company, which is expected to continue as it enhances its resource self-sufficiency and optimizes costs [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Management - The C-O salt lake is accelerating production, with an expected output of 30,000 to 35,000 tons of LCE for the full year 2025, and a long-term operational cost target of approximately 65,430 yuan per ton of LCE [6]. - The company plans to add a demonstration line for 5,000 tons of LCE to implement direct lithium extraction technology, which may be further applied in the second phase of a 40,000-ton LCE project [6]. Project Developments - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project in Mali, with a capacity of 506,000 tons, is set to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to resource scale and quality advantages [6]. - The Mariana salt lake's first phase of a 20,000-ton lithium chloride project began production in February 2025, with stable supply expected in the second half of 2025 [6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-sufficiency and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, holding the largest global capacity for lithium metal, and is anticipated to benefit from the future demand for solid-state batteries [6].