美债，全球资本的“无奈之选”

Group 1 - The total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign investors has slightly decreased to $9.25 trillion, despite the U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion, indicating strong global demand for U.S. debt [1] - Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, increased its holdings by $8.9 billion in September, reaching a total of $1.19 trillion, marking the ninth consecutive month of increases [2] - China, the third-largest holder, saw a slight decrease of $0.5 billion in its holdings, continuing a trend of gradual reduction since its peak of over $1.3 trillion in 2011 [2] Group 2 - The UK, as the second-largest holder, sold a significant $39.3 billion in September, while Canada experienced volatility, having sold over $50 billion in a single month earlier in the year but recently increasing its holdings by nearly $100 billion [3] - Other European countries like Belgium, Luxembourg, and Norway have consistently bought U.S. debt, while France, India, and Brazil have joined the ranks of those reducing their holdings [3][4] - The differing strategies among countries are influenced by their economic cycles, currency policies, inflation, and risk preferences, without any extraordinary circumstances [4] Group 3 - The demand for U.S. debt remains strong despite rising debt levels, as the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with the first cut implemented on September 17, 2025 [5] - The change in market dynamics has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, as the U.S. remains relatively strong compared to other global economies facing challenges [6] - Recent sell-offs in U.S. tech stocks have further reinforced the safe-haven status of U.S. debt [7] Group 4 - The U.S. government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, accounting for 126.8% of GDP, with projections suggesting it could reach 133% by 2035, leading to a debt spiral as interest payments become a significant portion of fiscal spending [8][10] - The annual fiscal deficit pressure of $1.8 trillion raises concerns about the sustainability of current debt levels, with potential implications for Treasury yields if market focus shifts from rate cuts to deficits [10] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate-cutting path and the risks in the corporate debt market could trigger the next round of market turmoil [11]