【环球财经】英伟达三季报公布在即，市场面临AI叙事“压力测试”

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to continue its high growth trend in the upcoming Q3 earnings report, with a focus on the shipment of Blackwell chips and Q4 performance guidance [2][4][6] Financial Performance Expectations - Market anticipates Nvidia will report Q3 revenue of $55.18 billion, a year-on-year growth of 57%, with a gross margin of 73.6% and adjusted net profit of $30.83 billion, reflecting a net profit margin increase from 51% to 56% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $1.26, a 60% increase year-on-year [6] - Nearly 90% of Nvidia's revenue is derived from its data center business, with expectations for Q3 data center revenue to reach $49.01 billion, a 61% year-on-year increase [6] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Among 49 analysts tracking Nvidia, 46 have a "buy" rating, 2 a "hold" rating, and 1 a "sell" rating, with a target price of $240.49, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current stock price [4] - Analysts express optimism regarding Nvidia's future performance, with expectations for Q4 revenue to reach $61.725 billion, maintaining a 57% growth rate [6] Impact on the AI Sector - Nvidia is viewed as a key player in the AI capital expenditure cycle, influencing the valuation of the entire AI sector [4][8] - The upcoming earnings report is seen as a "stress test" for the AI narrative, with potential implications for the broader technology sector [8] Supply Chain and Market Concerns - Any information regarding demand, order backlogs, or supply chain issues from Nvidia could significantly impact market sentiment and stock prices across the tech industry [9] - There are concerns about potential over-investment in AI, with analysts noting that Nvidia's strong guidance could exacerbate fears of a bubble in the AI sector [9][10] Regulatory and Market Risks - There is growing concern about a potential "AI bubble," with predictions indicating a significant revenue gap in the AI industry by 2030 [10] - Regulatory bodies in the US and EU are increasingly vigilant regarding systemic risks associated with large AI firms [10]