中指研究院：短期重点城市二手住宅价格或延续调整态势

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities is expected to continue its adjustment trend in the short term, despite a slight increase in transaction volume in the first ten months of the year. The market activity decreased in October, and while a month-on-month recovery in transaction volume is anticipated for November, year-on-year comparisons will still face pressure due to last year's high base [1]. Policy Developments - On October 28, the Central Committee released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing "promoting high-quality development of real estate" and outlining five key tasks, including optimizing housing supply and implementing city-specific policies [1]. - Local governments have introduced various policies to support the construction of "good houses," with cities like Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou issuing guidelines and optimizing housing loan policies [2]. Market Performance - In October, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities fell by 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year, while the top ten cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.96% and a year-on-year drop of 4.77% [4]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced varying degrees of price declines and transaction volume changes in October, with most cities showing a downward trend in both metrics [5][9][12][15]. City-Specific Insights - Beijing: In October, 12,087 second-hand homes were sold, with prices down 0.87% month-on-month and 4.82% year-on-year [6]. - Shanghai: The city recorded 16,374 transactions in October, with prices decreasing by 0.85% month-on-month and 4.56% year-on-year [9]. - Guangzhou: The transaction volume fell to 6,245 units in October, with prices down 1.00% month-on-month and 5.49% year-on-year [12]. - Shenzhen: The market saw 4,196 transactions in October, with a price decline of 0.63% month-on-month and 3.13% year-on-year [15]. - Chengdu: The city had 16,994 transactions in October, with prices down 0.50% month-on-month and 1.14% year-on-year [20]. - Nanjing: The market was relatively subdued, with 5,295 transactions in October and prices down 1.80% month-on-month and 10.25% year-on-year [22]. - Wuhan: The city recorded 7,703 transactions in October, with prices down 1.68% month-on-month and over 10% year-on-year [24]. - Chongqing: The average price was 11,174 yuan/m², with a month-on-month decline of 1.25% and a year-on-year drop of 6.26% [27]. - Tianjin: The city saw 9,890 transactions in October, with prices down 1.25% month-on-month and 6.88% year-on-year [29].