美联储“内讧”！鲍威尔共识破裂，降息路线左右互搏！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal divisions regarding interest rate policies, marking the end of a consensus era under Chairman Jerome Powell's leadership [2][3][4] Group 1: Internal Disagreements - In late October, the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but this move faced public opposition from two policymakers, one advocating for no change and the other for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - This is the first time in over 30 years that more than one member of the Federal Reserve Board has cast dissenting votes, indicating significant internal fractures [2][3] - The growing divide among officials is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and questions regarding President Trump's aggressive trade policies [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The unclear economic outlook complicates the dual mandate of maintaining labor market stability and controlling inflation, leading to conflicting opinions among Federal Reserve officials [3][4] - Some officials prioritize curbing high inflation driven by tariffs, while others focus on the weakening labor market, fearing a recession if no action is taken [3][4] - A divided Federal Reserve could have mixed impacts, potentially undermining its effectiveness and credibility if disagreements are not resolved [3][4] Group 3: Leadership Challenges - Powell's role has become increasingly difficult as the consensus-building approach that characterized previous leadership is now challenged [4][6] - Powell acknowledged the "strong divisions" among officials regarding policy direction, a shift from his earlier characterization of the disagreements as a "healthy debate" [6][8] - The upcoming meetings before Powell's term ends in May 2024 are expected to continue showcasing these divisions, complicating market predictions regarding future rate changes [6][8] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Predictions - The complexity of current Federal Reserve policy-making contrasts sharply with the clear objectives during the pandemic and subsequent inflationary periods [7][8] - The recent government shutdown has further complicated economic assessments, as critical data releases were delayed, adding to the uncertainty in policy decisions [8] - The split among policymakers includes hawkish voices advocating for maintaining rates to combat inflation and dovish voices calling for cuts to support the labor market [9][10]