发车！抛售接近尾声？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant sell-off in global markets, driven by factors such as tightening dollar liquidity, delayed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and skepticism surrounding the AI bubble. Despite these challenges, there is a belief that the market will stabilize and present investment opportunities in the future [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - A notable sell-off has affected various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, leaving investors with limited safe havens [1][3]. - The primary drivers of the recent downturn include: 1. Tightening dollar liquidity due to U.S. government shutdown concerns, Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment, and quantitative tightening (QT) [3]. 2. A significant drop in the market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, from nearly 96% certainty to below 50% [3]. 3. Rising skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI sector, as evidenced by a sharp increase in credit default swap spreads for companies like Oracle and CoreWeave [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 54% of fund managers believe that companies are over-investing, with 45% citing the AI bubble as a major tail risk [5]. - Despite the negative sentiment, there is optimism regarding the liquidity situation, as the U.S. Treasury has begun to release funds, potentially alleviating market liquidity concerns [5][8]. - The article suggests that the current AI bubble may not be at its end, positing that if it were to burst now, it would be one of the smallest and shortest-lived tech bubbles in history [8]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Historical data indicates that the year of the U.S. midterm elections (2026) is typically marked by significant market volatility, with an average intra-year drawdown of -17.5% but a subsequent average return of +31.7% in the following year [11][13]. - The earnings outlook for major U.S. companies is showing strong recovery, with a notable increase in the earnings guidance momentum score for S&P 500 companies [13]. - In the Indian market, strong domestic capital inflows and a recovering earnings cycle are supporting stability, despite a modest year-to-date increase of 8% [16][17]. - European markets are also showing signs of improvement, with MSCI Europe index earnings per share (EPS) growth exceeding expectations, particularly in the technology and financial sectors [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "barbell" strategy for domestic markets, focusing on defensive positions in dividend and small-cap stocks while also investing in leading internet companies during market corrections [21].