欧盟宣布暂缓实施碳排放交易体系“ETS2”

Core Points - The EU has decided to postpone the implementation of the new carbon emissions trading system "ETS2," which may impact inflation levels in the coming years and reopen the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the Eurozone [1][2] - ETS2 was originally set to start in 2027, imposing additional costs on high carbon-emitting sectors such as transportation and building heating, potentially leading to higher fuel and energy prices for the public [1] - The postponement is aimed at alleviating the economic impact of the green transition, with some economists suggesting that if ETS2 is delayed, inflation could fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% by 2027 [1][2] Economic Implications - Danish bank economist Rune Johansen indicated that if ETS2 is not implemented as scheduled in 2027, the decline in inflation could be more pronounced, providing a rationale for the ECB to support further rate cuts [1] - Analysts estimate that ETS2 alone could increase the EU's inflation rate by at least 0.2 percentage points in 2027; thus, if the plan is difficult to implement, price increases will be lower [1] Political Context - Despite the EU's commitment to achieving its 2040 emissions reduction targets, multiple governments are prioritizing economic growth and defense capabilities, fearing that rising energy costs may lead to voter dissatisfaction [2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has attempted to reassure the market that ETS2 may still be implemented in 2027 but in a gradual manner; however, the European Council and Parliament have formally proposed a delay [2] - Analysts generally believe that merely postponing ETS2 will not automatically trigger a shift in ECB policy unless other macroeconomic indicators deteriorate simultaneously [2]