Options Corner: PANW

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks has underperformed both the broader market and its tech sector peers, with a 3.5% increase compared to a 21% rise in the XLK ETF [1][2]. Performance Analysis - The stock recently peaked at approximately 223.61 but has since retraced, currently holding a support range between 196 and 198, which are significant lows established during its previous upward movement [3][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to about 37, indicating a weakening momentum, while the stock price has fallen below its moving averages [4]. Technical Indicators - Key moving averages are converging around the 205 level, with potential support identified at the 251-day EMA near 191 [4][5]. - The supportive area aligns with a high volume node between 196 and 198, while resistance is noted between 205 and 207, where moving averages and previous highs converge [5]. Options Strategy - Anticipation of elevated implied volatility ahead of earnings, with the options market pricing in a potential 7% move in shares [7]. - A neutral to bullish options strategy is proposed, involving a custom four-legged spread that combines selling an out-of-the-money put vertical and buying an upside call calendar [8][9]. - The strategy includes selling a 190 strike put and buying a 185 strike put, financing the purchase of a 215 strike call expiring on November 28 [9][10]. - The apex of profitability is targeted at or near 215, with a break-even point at approximately 189.70, allowing for some downside cushion before incurring losses [11][12].