Wall Street strategist sets S&P 500 price for end of 2025

Group 1 - Yardeni Research expects the S&P 500 to reach a new record high by the end of 2025, maintaining a year-end target of 7,000, which represents a 5.7% increase from its recent close of 6,617 [1] - The firm has reduced the probability of a "melt-up" scenario from 25% to 15% and increased the odds of a bearish scenario to 30%, citing concerns over an AI-led market correction and weak consumer sentiment [2] - Despite current market challenges, Yardeni Research believes fears of an "AI bubble" may be exaggerated, similar to past recession fears that did not materialize, and notes that extreme market fear often indicates potential rebounds [3] Group 2 - Wall Street analysts are generally optimistic about the S&P 500 for 2025, with Citigroup raising its target to 6,600 and Deutsche Bank lifting its target to 7,000, both citing strong corporate earnings and fiscal stimulus [5] - Goldman Sachs projects a 7% earnings growth for the S&P 500, while Edward Jones anticipates 11% growth but warns of potential volatility due to high valuations at 23x forward P/E [6] - Key factors influencing the index include performance from mega-cap technology, AI productivity gains, and favorable tax and spending policies, although risks such as elevated valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties persist [6]