Nvidia Stock May Dip. Vertiv, SuperMicro, CoreWeave To Drop With $NVDA

Core Insights - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang discussed the future of AI and its energy implications, stating that while machine learning consumes significant energy, AI will ultimately lead to energy savings through efficient computing [2] - NVIDIA is expected to report third-quarter earnings with revenue projected at approximately $55 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, reflecting growth of 56% and 59% respectively [5] - The stock has seen a decline of 15% since its peak on October 29, prompting notable investors like Softbank's Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel to sell their shares [3] Earnings Expectations - Wall Street consensus anticipates NVIDIA's revenue to be around $55 billion, with the options market indicating a potential stock movement of about 7.7% post-earnings announcement [5] - Analysts have outlined three scenarios for NVIDIA's stock movement based on earnings results, with probabilities assigned to each outcome [11] Analyst Sentiment - There is a growing pessimism among analysts regarding NVIDIA's stock, particularly due to concerns over its circular AI deals and the potential for a market bubble [7] - Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts view NVIDIA's investments in AI, including significant commitments to companies like OpenAI, as strategic moves to enhance the AI ecosystem [13] Investment Correlations - Various companies in the AI stack exhibit different levels of correlation with NVIDIA's stock performance, categorized into four tiers based on their dependency on NVIDIA [14] - Companies like Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave are highly correlated with NVIDIA's earnings, while larger diversified firms such as Microsoft and Google show lower leverage [10][14] Strategic Investments - NVIDIA's total investments in AI amount to approximately $53 billion across 170 deals from 2020 to 2025, raising questions about the nature of these investments and their impact on demand for NVIDIA's chips [8] - Huang expressed confidence in NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI, suggesting it could become a multitrillion-dollar company, highlighting the strategic importance of these investments for NVIDIA's future [12]