Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-19 15:57Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's recent research indicates that humanoid robots have transitioned from the R&D phase to the delivery validation phase, with a significant scaling milestone expected in 2026, although work efficiency and technological convergence remain key challenges [3][4]. Industry Trends - The delivery of humanoid robots is set to increase significantly, with major companies establishing expansion targets for 2026. For instance, UBTECH anticipates delivering 500 humanoid robots in 2025, generating approximately 400 million yuan in revenue, with a further increase to 2000-3000 units in 2026 [3][4]. - The total number of humanoid robots with practical work capabilities is projected to exceed 10,000 units by 2026, with component manufacturers also expected to benefit significantly [3][4]. Application Feedback - Despite a notable increase in success rates for humanoid robots (e.g., UBTECH achieving a 99% success rate in box handling tasks), their efficiency remains at only 30%-60% of human capabilities. The development cycle for new task models is lengthy, making application scenario validation a critical factor for industry growth in 2026 [4][5]. Technological Exploration - Companies in the humanoid robot industry are actively testing new technological pathways, but no unified standards have emerged. Key areas of focus include innovations in hardware (e.g., harmonic reducer materials, drive solutions) and software (e.g., large model applications limited by edge computing capabilities) [5][6]. Key Company Dynamics - UBTECH (9880.HK): Plans to release the Walker S3 version in the first half of 2026, featuring the NVIDIA Thor chip. The company aims to improve task completion times and efficiency, with a projected 4-6 times increase in delivery volume by 2026 [6][7]. - Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021.SZ): A leader in the dexterous hand sector, with a product matrix that includes modular and customized solutions. The company expects significant revenue growth in its dexterous hand business from 20-30 million yuan in 2025 to 100 million yuan in 2026 [7][8]. - Fortior (1304.HK): Focuses on innovative motor and sensor technologies, including coreless motors and rotary transformers. The company aims to enhance market share in the robotics sector while maintaining stable profit margins [8][9]. - Youibot: As a leader in industrial mobile robots, it targets revenue of 550-600 million yuan in 2026, with growth driven by increased market penetration and expansion into new fields [9].