息差企稳、不良双升 三季度银行业盈利与风险博弈继续

Core Insights - The banking industry is experiencing a phase of stabilization in net interest margins (NIM), with the NIM at 1.42% as of Q3 2025, marking the end of a continuous decline [1][2] - There is a slight increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) and NPL ratios, indicating ongoing risks in certain sectors of the economy [4][5] - The balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining prudent operations is a central concern for the banking sector [1] Group 1: Net Interest Margin Stabilization - As of Q3 2025, the commercial banks' NIM is 1.42%, showing a stabilization compared to previous quarters, despite a year-on-year decline of 11 basis points [2] - Different types of banks show varied trends: joint-stock commercial banks saw a slight increase in NIM to 1.56%, while private banks experienced a decrease to 3.83% [2] - The stabilization is attributed to effective cost control on the liability side and regulatory measures to optimize pricing capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Non-Performing Loans - The NPL balance reached 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 883 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with the NPL ratio rising to 1.52% [4][5] - NPL ratios for different bank types are as follows: state-owned banks at 1.22%, city commercial banks at 1.84%, rural commercial banks at 2.82%, and private banks at 1.83% [4] - The increase in NPLs is primarily concentrated in retail loans and the real estate sector, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [5][6] Group 3: Loan Rates and Economic Impact - Loan rates are nearing a "glass bottom," with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [7][8] - The decline in loan rates is driven by a combination of falling deposit costs and rising credit risks in personal loans [8][9] - Recommendations for policy adjustments include asymmetric reductions in deposit rates and measures to alleviate debt pressures on households [9]