专访中国能源研究会首席专家黄少中：可通过技术手段和机制创新 让“负电价”红利惠及老百姓

Core Viewpoint - The recent publication of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the need for high-quality development of clean energy, including the peak consumption of coal and oil, and the promotion of new energy storage solutions [1] Group 1: Coal and Oil Peak Consumption - China's coal consumption has decreased from 68.5% in 2000 to 53.2% in 2024, while oil consumption has dropped from 22% to 18.2%, but both still account for 71.4% of total energy consumption [2] - Achieving peak consumption for coal and oil by 2030 is challenging but feasible, with ongoing policy efforts showing gradual effectiveness [2] - The coal power sector is expected to reach its peak consumption before the coal sector overall, due to the reduction in coal use in industries like steel and cement [4] Group 2: Energy Transmission and Pricing Mechanism - The external transmission of electricity is deemed crucial for large-scale renewable energy consumption, especially in regions like Northwest China [5] - The establishment of a scientific and reasonable pricing mechanism for electricity transmission is essential, as current pricing often leads to disputes and inefficiencies [7] - Government intervention is necessary to enhance transmission capacity and coordinate interests among different stakeholders [9] Group 3: Renewable Energy Investment and Market Dynamics - As of September 2023, China's renewable energy capacity reached nearly 22 billion kilowatts, with a target of 36 billion kilowatts by 2035, necessitating an annual increase of 1.9 to 2 billion kilowatts [10] - The current low on-grid electricity prices are affecting investment enthusiasm in the renewable sector, particularly in solar energy [10][11] - The relationship between promoting investment and achieving targets is manageable, with expectations that the 2035 goal will be met or exceeded [12] Group 4: New Energy Storage Development - The new energy storage sector is experiencing rapid growth but faces challenges such as low-price competition and economic viability [15] - Recent policy changes have ended mandatory energy storage requirements for new renewable projects, leading to an oversupply in the market [16] - The government is working on reforms to improve market mechanisms for energy storage, including integrating it into capacity pricing systems [17]