Ge Long Hui·2025-11-19 21:23Core Viewpoint - The decline in popularity of Labubu is not indicative of a deterioration in the company's fundamentals, as Bubble Mart is not solely an IP toy company but a platform for creating and commercializing various IPs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent sales data from the U.S. market showed a significant slowdown in growth compared to Q3 2025, leading to concerns about Labubu's brand strength [2] - The slowdown in sales is attributed to the pre-sale of Labubu in July and August, which exhausted future market demand and strained the supply chain [2] - However, sales data for the first week of November indicates a return to higher growth rates, with expectations for continued strong sales during the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons [2] Group 2: Growth Potential in North America and Europe - Despite impressive growth in the Americas, this region accounted for only 16.3% of the company's total revenue in the first half of 2025, with projections of around 20% for the full year [3] - The company has only 41 retail stores in North America compared to 443 in Greater China, indicating significant room for expansion [3] - The European market also shows potential, with only 3.4% of total revenue coming from this region and just 18 retail stores as of the end of the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Stock Performance - Bubble Mart is recognized as a leader in the global trendy toy industry, with solid fundamentals and a high certainty of long-term growth [4] - The current stock price has fallen to 15 times the estimated P/E for 2026, suggesting a high value proposition [4] - Short-selling activity has decreased, indicating improving market sentiment, and the company is expected to see a rebound in stock price and valuation as growth certainty for 2026 increases [4]