CNCEC(SH:601117) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-19 21:26Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material prices have plummeted from 173,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton between the end of 2022 and August 2025, marking an 80.2% decline, leading to over 36 months of continuous losses in the industry [1] - The LFP industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with surging demand from electric vehicle and energy storage batteries on one side, and three consecutive years of losses and an average debt ratio of 67.7% on the other [1][2] - The industry faces a structural supply-demand imbalance and a lack of bargaining power within the supply chain, complicating the cost transmission from raw materials to LFP producers [3] Industry Challenges - The LFP sector is currently the most competitive segment within the lithium battery supply chain, with six out of seven leading companies having an average debt ratio of 67.7% [2] - The core issue causing the industry's predicament is the dual challenge of structural supply-demand imbalance and a lack of bargaining power in the supply chain [3] - There is a significant disparity between excess low-end capacity and a shortage of high-end products, leading to fierce price competition in the low-end market [3] Technological Hurdles - The industry must focus on technological upgrades to maintain its competitive edge against sodium-ion and solid-state batteries [4] - Key areas for technological iteration include ultra-high density, fast charging capabilities, and low-temperature performance, but funding constraints hinder the industrialization of advanced technologies [4] - The low entry barriers in the industry have resulted in some companies lacking core technological capabilities, forcing them to compete on price in the low-end market, which further depresses overall profitability [4] Collaborative Solutions - The "anti-involution" movement in the LFP industry requires collaborative efforts across the entire supply chain [6] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has released a cost index system for the LFP industry to provide transparent value references for companies and support government regulation [6] - A shift from price competition to value competition is necessary, requiring consensus among mining, material, battery, and end-use companies to share cost pressures and establish a healthy price transmission mechanism [6]