Ge Long Hui·2025-11-19 21:34Core Viewpoint - 吉利汽车 reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 吉利汽车 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.2 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company sold 760,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Cost Management - Sales expense ratio in Q3 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Management expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - R&D expense ratio was 4.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Outlook - 吉利汽车 is launching a new product cycle with competitive models such as 银河A7 and 银河星耀8, which have achieved monthly sales of over 13,000 and 10,000 units respectively [2] - The company expects to maintain strong sales momentum, with projected total sales of 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year increases of 40%, 23%, and 8% respectively [2] - The introduction of high-end models is expected to significantly enhance the company's product structure and profitability [2] Group 4: Profitability Forecast - Projected net profit margins for 2025-2027 are 5.2%, 6.0%, and 6.4%, with attributable net profits of 17.8 billion, 24 billion, and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [3] - The core net profit estimates for the same period are 14.3 billion, 23 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3] - The company is considered a top pick for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Based on the strong new product cycle and improved product structure, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards [3] - The target price for 吉利汽车 is set at 26.00 HKD, representing a potential upside of 51% based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 [3]