CNCEC(SH:601117) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-19 21:56Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material prices have plummeted from 173,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton between the end of 2022 and August 2025, marking an 80.2% decline, leading to over 36 months of continuous losses in the industry [1] - The LFP industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with surging demand from electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems on one side, while facing three consecutive years of losses and an average debt ratio of 67.7% on the other [1][2] - The industry is under pressure from a structural imbalance, where raw material price increases are not being effectively passed down to LFP manufacturers, resulting in compressed profit margins [3] Industry Challenges - The core issues facing the LFP industry stem from a structural supply-demand imbalance and a lack of bargaining power within the supply chain [3] - There is a notable contradiction in the industry characterized by "overall surplus and high-end scarcity," where low-end capacity is expanding chaotically, leading to fierce price competition, while high-end products are in short supply [3] - The industry is also hindered by technological upgrade challenges, with funding bottlenecks limiting the advancement of new technologies [4] Technological and Market Dynamics - The industry is encouraged to focus on technological upgrades, particularly in high-density, fast-charging, and low-temperature performance, but faces significant financial constraints [4] - The lack of core technological accumulation among some companies, due to low entry barriers, has led to a focus on price competition in the low-end market, further eroding overall profitability [4] - Regulatory bodies are urged to raise industry entry thresholds to guide companies towards high-end market technology development and mitigate ongoing price wars [4] Collaborative Solutions - The LFP industry's "anti-involution" requires collaborative efforts across the entire supply chain, rather than isolated actions [6] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has released a cost index system for the LFP industry to provide transparent value references and support government regulation [6] - A shift from "price wars" to "value wars" is necessary, with all stakeholders in the lithium battery industry forming a consensus on cost-sharing and risk management to establish a healthy price transmission mechanism [6]