未来的婚恋市场，可能会像地产一样下行

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant downturn, with new residential property prices in 300 cities dropping by 5.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [1][2] - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 100 real estate companies in China reached 82.3% as of June 2025, up from 76.8% in 2020, with 37 companies publicly facing debt issues and 12 entering bankruptcy restructuring [1] Group 2: Marriage Market Changes - The number of marriage registrations in China is projected to decline to 6.1 million in 2024, a 20.5% decrease from 7.68 million in 2023, with the first quarter of 2025 recording only 1.81 million registrations, the lowest in nearly 50 years [4] - There is a significant gender imbalance in the matchmaking market, with 26 out of 30 cities reporting a higher number of women than men, exemplified by a ratio of 1:43 in Chengdu [4][5] Group 3: Societal Impacts - High-educated women face a "local surplus" in the marriage market, as they tend to seek partners with equal or higher educational qualifications, leading to a scarcity of suitable men [5][6] - The economic downturn in real estate is causing a shift in male spending behavior, with men becoming more frugal, which affects their willingness to invest in dating and relationships [10][12] Group 4: Cultural Shifts - The traditional expectation of men spending generously on dates is diminishing, leading to a more transactional approach to relationships, which some women perceive as a regression [12][15] - The trend of choosing not to marry is increasing, similar to the real estate market where properties that were once in high demand are now less sought after [15][19] Group 5: Comparative Analysis - Japan's experience with declining marriage rates and increasing non-marriage trends serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the potential long-term effects of economic shifts on societal norms regarding marriage [16][18]