海峡危机引爆连锁反应！油价保险费用飙涨，全球经济或将埋单

Core Viewpoint - The recent seizure of an international oil tanker by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions between Iran and the United States, raising concerns about global energy supply and market stability [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard captured the MV Talara, a tanker flying the Marshall Islands flag, using military force, which has been interpreted as a direct challenge to international law and a threat to global shipping security [5][10]. - Approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any conflict in this region potentially impactful on global oil prices and shipping safety [7][19]. Group 2: U.S. Response - The U.S. has responded strongly, with the Pentagon stating it will use "absolute force" to protect shipping in the region, increasing military deployments and readiness for potential larger conflicts [10][12]. - The U.S. government has condemned Iran's actions as a typical act of hijacking that undermines international trade order and creates significant uncertainty for the global economy [12][17]. Group 3: Iranian Justification - Iran claims the seizure was a lawful enforcement action against the tanker for allegedly smuggling chemicals, asserting that it was not an act of aggression but a legal seizure [15][17]. - This justification has not been accepted by the U.S. or the international community, which views the action as a significant threat to international shipping and trade [17]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the incident, global oil prices surged, reflecting the immediate market reaction to the heightened risk in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy supply route [19][21]. - Insurance costs for shipping through the Strait have also increased, leading to higher international trade costs and potential supply chain instability, particularly for countries reliant on Middle Eastern oil [21][23]. Group 5: Strategic Importance and Future Outlook - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital geopolitical and economic corridor, handling about one-fifth of global oil transport, making it a focal point for international trade and political maneuvering [23][25]. - The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran could further destabilize the region, with implications for global economic trends and the need for international cooperation to prevent escalation [25][29].