听风辩势∣有色金属——供需与降息共振

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is entering a phase of improving profitability and rising prices, driven by a combination of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and strong demand in downstream sectors [3][4][10] Group 1: Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to supply disruptions, with a projected global copper shortage of about 1% by 2026 and 0.5% by 2027 [4] - Aluminum profitability is set to increase as China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaches 98%, leading to potential price surges if demand exceeds expectations [4][10] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, controlled inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [5][10] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for 12 consecutive months [5] Group 3: Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to new export quota regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, potentially creating a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the next two years [6] - The lithium industry is poised for a new growth cycle, driven by surging demand for energy storage batteries, with global shipments expected to increase significantly [6] Group 4: Minor Metals - China's dominance in rare earth resources strengthens its strategic position, controlling approximately 50% of global reserves and 90% of oxide production [7] - Tungsten and antimony markets are showing signs of recovery due to relaxed export controls and restored overseas demand [8][9]