12月降息概率跌至三成！美联储会议纪要“放鹰”：警惕通胀与数据缺失风险

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal a strong division among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with increasing concerns that progress on inflation has stalled, leading to a cautious stance on further easing [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut on December 10 has dropped to 32.8%, down from over 90% a month ago [2]. - In the previous meeting, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points with a vote of 10-2, marking the second consecutive cut [2]. - Many officials expressed a desire to maintain stable rates in December, fearing that further cuts could increase the risk of persistent high inflation [2][3]. Economic Concerns - Officials are worried that the progress towards the 2% inflation target has stalled, which could lead to rising long-term inflation expectations if not addressed [2]. - The uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting the assessment of economic conditions [3][5]. Data and Decision-Making - The upcoming December meeting will occur without the release of key employment data for October, which complicates the decision-making process for the Fed [5]. - The absence of October's unemployment data may influence the positions of committee members who are currently undecided on whether to support a rate cut [5]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that unless there are significant changes in economic conditions or capital markets, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is diminishing [6]. - Current inflationary pressures are primarily driven by tariffs, which monetary policy may not effectively address [7].