比特币蒸发1.2万亿美元背后，加密财库公司信任危机爆发

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 and erasing all gains for the year, leading to a total market cap decline of over $1.2 trillion in the past six weeks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 18, Bitcoin fell to a low of $89,012, marking a single-day drop of over 6%, the lowest in seven months [3]. - The total cryptocurrency market cap has decreased by more than $1.2 trillion over the past six weeks, indicating severe market volatility [3]. - On the same day, over $1 billion in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting approximately 183,500 traders [4]. Group 2: Institutional Impact - The downturn has raised concerns about the valuation logic of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, as many are now holding assets below their average purchase costs [3][7]. - The mNAV (market value to Bitcoin value ratio) for many DAT companies has dropped below 1, indicating a loss of premium and raising questions about their governance capabilities [7][8]. - As of November 18, several prominent DAT companies reported mNAV values below 1, with Strategy at 0.937 and Metaplanet at 0.912, reflecting significant market skepticism [7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Large investors, or "whales," and long-term holders have begun to sell off their Bitcoin holdings, with over 800,000 BTC sold in the past month [5]. - The recent sell-off is attributed to forced liquidations, large-scale selling by major holders, and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, contributing to the market's decline [5][6]. - The net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $2.5 billion in the past month, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Factors - The primary drivers of the current downturn are macroeconomic factors, including tightening liquidity and structural leverage collapse, exacerbated by persistent inflation data and a resilient job market in the U.S. [4][5]. - The expectation of delayed interest rate cuts until early 2026 has strengthened the U.S. dollar's real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin [4].