全国房价普跌警报拉响，专家警示新一轮下行风险

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market has experienced a historic decline, with all 70 cities reporting price drops for two consecutive months, marking a significant shift in the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][3][5]. Summary by Category Housing Market Trends - In October, the average new home price in 70 major cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, both showing an expanded decline compared to September [5][9]. - This marks the first time since 2011 that all 70 cities have seen a month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices for two consecutive months [5][11]. City-Specific Performance - Among first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai being the only city to see a slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities dropped by 0.9% month-on-month, with a continuous decline observed over the past six months, indicating a more severe downturn compared to second and third-tier cities [7][9]. Economic Implications - Experts express concerns about deflation risks due to the ongoing decline in housing prices, which may negatively impact consumer confidence and spending [11][17]. - The real estate sector's downturn is expected to persist, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures in the economy [11][18]. Market Segmentation - Despite the overall decline, certain high-quality projects continue to attract buyers, indicating a market segmentation where "good properties" remain in demand [13]. - Some older projects are resorting to significant discounts and promotional offers to attract customers, reflecting the competitive pressure in the market [13]. Policy and Market Response - The National Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the fluctuations in the real estate market but emphasizes that policy effects are still being realized, with ongoing efforts to reduce inventory [15]. - The total unsold commercial housing area decreased to 75.606 million square meters by the end of October, continuing a trend of reduction over the past eight months [15].