美联储12月降息概率跌至三成

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal strong divisions among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with increasing concerns that progress on inflation has stalled [2][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in the previous meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, with a 10-2 vote [3]. - Chairman Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion" [3]. - Many officials expressed opposition to further cuts, fearing that the 2% inflation target progress has stagnated, which could lead to rising long-term inflation expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - Officials are concerned about the uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [4]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 will determine the future interest rate policy [5]. Challenges Faced by the Fed - The Fed is currently facing multiple challenges, including interruptions in official data releases and conflicting signals from existing information [6]. - The absence of employment data prior to the next meeting adds to the uncertainty regarding monetary policy decisions [6]. Market Expectations - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased from over 90% to 32.8% [2][6]. - Macro strategist Boris Schlossberg noted that unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is diminishing [7].