“煤改气”重塑玻璃产业竞争格局

Core Viewpoint - The "coal-to-gas" policy is fundamentally reshaping the glass industry's development logic, transitioning from reliance on coal to cleaner energy sources, which is seen as a crucial step towards high-quality development amidst the real estate sector's adjustments and carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Policy Direction and Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently focused on supply-side changes, particularly the "coal-to-gas" initiative, which is expected to reduce supply and potentially support prices [2]. - The shift from end-of-pipe treatment to source control in regulatory approaches is a significant change, aiming to reduce emissions at the source through fuel structure upgrades [2][3]. - The "coal-to-gas" initiative is viewed as a systematic restructuring rather than a mere environmental policy adjustment, driven by both policy and market forces [2][3]. Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The underlying logic of "coal-to-gas" is to address the overcapacity issue in the glass industry by phasing out outdated production capacity through fuel system upgrades [3]. - The glass industry has faced severe challenges since 2021, including supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels, necessitating the elimination of outdated capacity and cost restructuring [3][8]. - A notable project by Zhengkang Clean Energy in Shihezi City, investing 4 billion yuan to build a clean coal-to-gas facility, is expected to save approximately 900,000 tons of coal annually and reduce energy consumption by 10% [3]. Regional Progress and Variability - The "coal-to-gas" transition is primarily concentrated in the Hebei Shihezi region, with a total of 6,000 tons/day of glass production capacity involved, but progress varies significantly among local companies due to factors like financial strength and production plans [5][6]. - As of November, four coal-fired glass production lines in Shihezi have been shut down, impacting a total daily melting capacity of 2,400 tons [6][10]. - The transition involves complex processes, and while some companies are prepared for the switch, others are still in a state of uncertainty regarding their production plans [6][7]. Economic Implications - The profitability of different fuel types varies significantly, with coal-to-gas lines achieving a weekly profit of 51.26 yuan/ton, while natural gas lines have been operating at a loss [8]. - The shift in energy structure is expected to lead to a decrease in unit energy consumption and a transition from price competition to quality competition in the glass industry [8][9]. - The core production area of Shihezi, accounting for 10% of national glass capacity, plays a crucial role in influencing national pricing trends [12]. Future Outlook - The glass industry is anticipated to enter a phase of accelerated capacity clearance between 2025 and 2026, integrating green development into its strategic core [12]. - The "coal-to-gas" initiative is seen as a catalyst for industry restructuring, with smaller players exiting the market and larger firms expanding their market share [12].