PVC已处于低估值区域 利空因素基本得到充分消化

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, PVC futures prices have hit a nearly ten-year low due to increased supply and decreased demand, particularly influenced by a sluggish real estate sector [1][2]. Supply - 2025 is expected to be a peak year for PVC capacity expansion, with an additional 2.2 million tons projected, leading to a total capacity of 29.93 million tons by year-end, a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1]. - As of November 14, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.0282 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.27% month-on-month but a significant increase of 23.75% year-on-year, indicating high inventory pressure [1]. Demand - The current demand for PVC is characterized by "weak domestic and strong external" factors, with 80% of downstream demand related to real estate and infrastructure, both of which have seen declines in investment and new projects [1]. - The low operating rates in consumption areas such as pipes and profiles, along with a lack of positive factors in the infrastructure sector, contribute to overall weak demand [1]. Export - India's PVC demand has been growing, with a demand gap of 3 million tons per year, heavily reliant on imports. China's PVC exports to India surged from 7.3% in 2020 to 50.9% in 2024 [2]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China exported 3.3941 million tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 47.78%, with 1.215 million tons going to India, accounting for 41.6% of total exports [2]. Cost - Recent declines in oil and coal prices have weakened cost support for PVC, with prices falling below cost lines, leading to industry-wide losses [2]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises are maintaining PVC production through high profits from caustic soda, but the price of caustic soda has dropped by 30% from its peak, making this strategy unsustainable [2]. Short-term Outlook - In the short term, PVC supply continues to grow while demand remains weak, leading to significant inventory pressure and insufficient upward price momentum [3]. - PVC is currently in a low valuation area, with negative factors largely priced in, suggesting limited downside potential. The market is expected to remain in a "bottoming out" and "capping" oscillation pattern, with the 2601 contract projected to trade between 4,400 and 4,800 yuan per ton [3].