需求预期下降 焦煤价格短期承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market has shifted from strong to weak, with the main contract dropping from 1318 CNY/ton to around 1159 CNY/ton, a decline of over 12%, underperforming steel and iron ore [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple factors have contributed to the decline in coking coal prices, including a shift in supply expectations following a meeting by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season [1] - Weak demand is evident as steel prices decline, leading to reduced profits for steel mills and temporary production cuts, which in turn decreases the demand for coking coal [1][3] - The price increase of thermal coal has slowed down, with some coal mines even reducing prices, putting additional pressure on coking coal prices [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production - Despite the fourth round of coking coal price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has not improved, with average profits for independent coking plants reported at -34 CNY per ton [2] - The proportion of profitable coking plants has decreased to 32.19%, indicating that most coking enterprises are operating at a loss, leading to reduced production [2] - Daily average coking coal production has declined, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 71.64%, reflecting a decrease in production activity since mid-September [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for coking coal demand remains weak, with a significant drop in the proportion of profitable steel mills, now at 38.96%, marking a continuous decline over 14 weeks [3] - Limited downstream demand in the steel industry, particularly in construction and manufacturing, suggests that coking coal demand will continue to decrease [3] Group 4: Supply Recovery - Domestic coal supply has started to recover, with the utilization rate of coking coal mines reaching 86.28% and daily average output hitting a new high since October [4] - Import volumes of coal have also seen a recovery, with significant amounts reported at the Ganqimaodu port, indicating a potential increase in supply [4] - The overall supply-demand balance is shifting, with expectations of continued pressure on coking coal prices in the short term due to weak demand and recovering supply [4]