港口库存持续累积 乙二醇期价预计延续偏弱震荡走势

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ethylene glycol industry has shifted from a capacity expansion phase to a deep adjustment phase of supply-demand rebalancing, characterized by "high supply, weak demand, and high inventory," leading to a downward trend in futures prices since September [1] Supply Side Summary - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity continues to be released, with a utilization rate of 66.00% as of the week of November 13, slightly up by 0.12 percentage points [2] - The total production of ethylene glycol reached 413,700 tons during the same week, showing a slight increase of 800 tons [2] - By 2025, domestic ethylene glycol capacity is expected to exceed 29.8 million tons, with new installations like Shandong Yulong's 900,000-ton unit further increasing supply expectations [2] - Despite some facilities planning maintenance, the new capacity significantly outweighs the short-term reductions from maintenance, leading to a continued loose supply-demand balance [2] - Domestic self-sufficiency has increased, reducing the marginal impact of imports despite some overseas supply disruptions [2] Demand Side Summary - Downstream demand remains weak, with approximately 95% of ethylene glycol consumption concentrated in the polyester industry, which directly influences price trends [3] - Following the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, order follow-ups have been weak, leading to a cautious market outlook [3] - As of the week of November 13, domestic demand for ethylene glycol was 552,200 tons, down by 0.31% [3] - Port inventories have been steadily accumulating, with East China port inventory reaching 618,000 tons, up by 13,000 tons, driven by increased domestic production and insufficient downstream receiving capacity [3] Overall Market Outlook - The domestic ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain an accumulation trend, with high supply levels and weak downstream demand leading to a bearish outlook for futures prices [4]